INSIGHTS FROM THE FIELD
Hard lessons from three decades as a Green Beret, SWAT officer, and counter-terrorism contractor — for leaders, professionals, and families.
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Threat-Proof Newsletter | Trevor Thrasher | Substack
The Threat-Proof Newsletter delivers no-fluff safety insights, real-world threat breakdowns, and practical tips to help you protect yourself and your family in an unpredictable world. Tips from a spec ops, C.T., and a law enforcement man-at-arms. Click to read Threat-Proof Newsletter, by Trevor Thrasher, a Substack publication.
MAR 13, 2026
Four Terrorist Attacks in Two Weeks: Iran Threat Assessment Confirmed — Does Your Family Have a Plan?
The pattern from the Iran strikes threat assessment isn't theoretical anymore — here's what happened, who stopped it, and what your family needs to do tonight.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN IN THE FULL ARTICLE:
- All four post-Iran attacks broken down — timeline, method, ideology, and outcome
- The three mindset shifts that separate people who act from people who freeze
- Why the Bowling Green shooting is one of the most important use-of-force case studies in recent history
- What the NCITE cyber warning means for your family's preparedness right now
- How to build a simple active threat response plan at your kitchen table tonight
Two weeks ago I laid out a four-tier threat assessment after the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. I said Event Number One — the ideologically motivated lone wolf attack — had already happened in Austin. Since then, three more attacks have confirmed every tier of that assessment in fourteen days.
Austin. New York City. Old Dominion University. Temple Israel. Four attacks. Multiple dead. And in every single case, the people who stopped or limited the violence had one thing in common before the shooting started.
Who Stopped the Attacks
At Old Dominion, ROTC students subdued and killed the shooter — in the classroom he targeted specifically because it was an ROTC class. At Temple Israel, trained armed security engaged the attacker immediately as he drove an explosives-laden truck through the front doors. At Club Q in Colorado Springs, Army veteran Rich Fierro tackled the gunman, beat him with his own pistol, and held him until police arrived. At STEM School Highlands Ranch, 18-year-old Kendrick Castillo charged the shooter three days before his graduation. He was killed. No one else in that classroom was.
Veterans. ROTC students. Law Enforcement. Trained security. The pattern is not a coincidence.
The Three Mindset Shifts
These people didn't act because they were braver. They acted because they had already resolved three things before the crisis arrived. First: accept that it might actually happen to you — not theoretically, but genuinely. Second: accept that it's your responsibility to act, not someone else's. Third: give yourself permission to use decisive force to protect innocent life.
Military training forces you to internalize all three. Most people never have that conversation with themselves. And under extreme stress, that unresolved question is the gap where people die.
Cyber Is Real and It's Local
The second-tier threat is also confirmed. NCITE — the counterterrorism center at UNO — is warning Nebraskans specifically about Iranian cyber attacks targeting power infrastructure. If the grid goes down for 48 hours in your area, does your family have a plan for communication, water, food, and medication? Most don't. That's a solvable problem if you address it now.
The Bottom Line
The attackers are not slowing down. The ideological trigger from the Iran strikes is still active. But you don't need a military background to be prepared. You need a conversation, a framework, and the willingness to stop hoping and start preparing. One hour at your kitchen table tonight makes your family 100% more prepared than the families doing nothing.
MAR 04, 2026
Threat Assessment: 4 Real Dangers After Iran Strikes (And What You Can Do Now)
A former Green Beret breaks down the most likely threats to American families—and the practical steps you can take today.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN IN THE FULL ARTICLE:
- The four-tier threat assessment framework (lone wolf to sleeper cell)
- Why ideologically motivated attacks are the highest probability threat right now
- How cyber warfare could disrupt your family's communication
- The one preparation step most families skip that matters most
Within hours of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, my phone started ringing. Parents worried about their kids. Spouses separated by travel. Families trying to understand what they should do in the next few days. I expanded my threat assessment here because I believe every family in America needs to hear this.
Let me be blunt: Event Number One has already happened.
On March 1st, a gunman opened fire on a bar patio in Austin, Texas, killing three people and injuring thirteen more. The FBI is investigating potential terrorism ties. The shooter was wearing an Iranian flag undershirt with photos of Iranian leaders found at his home. This happened one day after the strikes on Iran.
That's the threat landscape right now. These attackers are already primed. They just need a trigger—and the strikes on Iran certainly provide one.
But here's an important distinction: the threat doesn't come exclusively from Iranians. Extremists of any background who oppose the U.S. and Israel could use this moment as justification. The trigger is ideological, not ethnic.
The old Arabic saying applies here: “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
MY FOUR-TIER THREAT ASSESSMENT
I assess the current threat environment across four categories, ranked from most likely to least likely:
- Lone Wolf / Ideologically Motivated Attacker (HIGH probability, HIGH impact) These are self-radicalized individuals waiting for a trigger to act. They're what I call the "poor man's cruise missile." They won't just use guns—vehicles, fire, incendiary devices, whatever's available. The Austin shooting is a perfect example. These people aren't rational actors. They're ideologically captured and willing to die for their cause.
- Cyber Warfare (HIGH probability, LOW individual impact but extremely broad) Iran has significant cyber capabilities. They're already conducting "The Great Epic" cyber campaign, targeting fuel infrastructure, industrial control systems, and military logistics. Iranian drone strikes have already damaged AWS data centers in the Middle East. An estimated 60 hacktivist groups are active in this conflict.For most people, a major cyber event won't be life-threatening—but it will be extremely problematic. It could shut down your business, disrupt airports, and most critically, separate you from your family with no way to communicate.
- Targeted Attacks on Military Facilities (MODERATE probability, MODERATE impact) There's some likelihood of targeted strikes against military installations or assassinations of specific individuals on U.S. soil. We've already seen the assassination of Israeli embassy personnel in Washington, D.C.
- Sleeper Cell Attack (LOW probability, CATASTROPHIC impact) This is the least likely scenario right now. Iran cannot afford a blatant, traceable attack on American civilians. The political consequences would be too severe. The smart play for them is to wait until the U.S. is distracted.
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO RIGHT NOW
For your family, focus on threats one and two—the most probable and immediately relevant to your daily decisions.
Most importantly: have an alternate means of communication with your family. We've become dangerously dependent on phones. If those go down—whether from cyber attack or infrastructure failure—most families have no backup plan.
FEB 12, 2026
Gun Disarming: Why Taking the Weapon Isn't the End of the Fight
Self-defense disarm tactics: What happens after you take the weapon. 4 real cases + the 911 communication formula.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN IN THE FULL ARTICLE:
- The Plus-One Rule — why a successful disarm is only a reset, not a finish
- All four real-world cases analyzed in detail, including body cam footage breakdowns
- Why 911 communication is the difference between surviving and becoming a statistic
- The ABCDs of awareness expanded to E (Expectations) and F (Friend-or-Foe identification)
- A practical 60-second drill you can run at home with your family today
I've been covering gun disarming and self-defense tactics recently because reality keeps delivering brutal case studies faster than I can write about them. Here's the uncomfortable truth: successfully disarming an attacker is not the end of the battle—it's a quick reset. What happens next in your active threat response is what determines survival.
At first thought, you might ask yourself how someone ends up dead after successfully disarming an attacker. That's exactly the point. The disarm is just the beginning. What you do next, what the people around you do, and how you communicate with arriving police—that's what determines survival.
THE PLUS-ONE RULE
In all four of these incidents, the attacker was successfully disarmed. In all four, the hero still died or was gravely wounded. Each person found the courage to act decisively—something many would fail to do. They are heroes by any definition.
If you disrupt or disarm an attacker, you must assume three things until proven otherwise:
- They will continue to attack if not disabled. A disarm is not a defeat. The threat isn't over until the person is physically incapable of continuing.
- They will have another weapon. Beyond the one you see or take.
- They will have an accomplice. The gun you took might not be the only gun in the fight.
CASE STUDY: BONDI BEACH
An older gentleman named Boris Gurman confronted a gunman and wrestled the firearm away. The disarm was clean. Both men separated and got back to their feet. Gurman charged after the terrorist using the captured firearm as a club. His wife Sofia was nearby, maneuvering to his side. The video cuts, but it appears the terrorist obtained another weapon and killed both Boris and Sofia.
Later, Ahmed al-Ahmed rushed the same gunman, disarmed him, and took cover behind a tree. The gunman walked away—and his son and accomplice shot the hero from a nearby position.
THE 911 CALL: 60 SECONDS THAT SAVE OR KILL
Two cases stand out: Brandon Durham and Christian Diaz. Both called 911 reporting home invasions. Both successfully disarmed their attackers. Both were shot and killed by arriving police.
The common thread? The 911 call was the last best opportunity to set conditions for a good outcome, and in both cases the communication fell short.
Here's the formula. Take a breath. Then get out:
• Address. Where are you?
• Nature of the event. What is happening?
• What you need. What kind of help?
• Description of the attacker. What do they look like?
• Description of the innocents. What do the good guys look like? If a good guy is holding the suspect, make damn sure that's crystal clear.
Compare: "They've got him over here!" versus "The suspect is down, he's been disarmed. My dad is holding him—my dad is in a blue shirt, the suspect is in a black hoodie."
YOUR CRITICAL TASK EXERCISE
Set a timer on your phone. Simulate a 911 call for a home invasion at your house. See how much vital information you can clearly communicate in the first 30 seconds and the first minute.
If you're good, the first minute can solve nearly all of your problems.
Then practice this: How would you direct a family member to greet arriving police? If you're the one holding a suspect down, what have you told the person on the phone to relay?
Walk through it. Out loud. Even once. It will be awkward and feel silly. Do it anyway.
JAN 08, 2026
Before You Judge the Minneapolis Shooting, Watch This
Why use-of-force decisions happen in fractions of a second — not on social media.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN IN THE FULL ARTICLE:
- How reaction time works in both directions — and why shots fired "after" a threat aren't automatically criminal
- The science of perceptual tunneling and why stress narrows what officers can see and process
- The stick-or-snake survival response — and why it governs split-second use-of-force decisions
- How to evaluate use-of-force incidents as a competent, rational adult — not through a tribal filter
- The specific human factors present in the Minneapolis incident and what they tell us
The shooting of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis is generating enormous heat. Most of it is driven by tribalism, politics, or emotion. I'm asking you to do something different.
Before you form an opinion, understand the physics and human factors involved — from the officer's perspective, in real time.
Reaction Time Works Both Ways
Most people understand that it takes time to perceive a threat and respond. What they don't understand is that it also takes time to stop a response once it's started. The average reaction time to a simple stimulus is around 0.25 seconds under ideal lab conditions. On a snowy street with a vehicle accelerating toward you, complex decision-making under stress takes longer. And once you've committed to pressing a trigger, your brain still needs time to send the stop signal — and your body needs time to process it.
Shots fired after a threat has passed aren't automatically evidence of malice. They may be evidence of basic human physiology.
The Invisible Gorilla Problem
Human attention under stress narrows — a phenomenon called perceptual tunneling. Officers cannot see and process everything happening around them. Armchair analysts watching video can pause, rewind, zoom in, and analyze frame by frame. An officer in the moment cannot. He's processing movement, sound, shouted commands, and potential threats — all in fractions of a second. The question isn't what the video shows. The question is what the officer reasonably perceived in real time.
Stick or Snake
Here's the survival principle at work: in a threat situation, humans react to patterns before they verify. If you see a curved shape in tall grass, you jump before you determine whether it's a stick or a snake. That's not a flaw — it's millions of years of evolution keeping you alive. Officers confronting a vehicle moving toward them are operating on that same wiring. The legal and tactical question is whether the perception was reasonable given the circumstances — not whether it was correct in hindsight.
This isn't a defense of every officer in every situation. It's a call to engage your high brain instead of your tribal brain. Both sides of this debate deserve better than the analysis they're getting.
NOV 26, 2025
The 60-Second Safety Plan Every Family Needs Before the Next Holiday Event
Why festive crowds are the softest targets on the planet — and what one quick conversation changes.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN IN THE FULL ARTICLE:
- Why holiday crowds are consistently the highest-risk soft targets — and how terrorist groups actively plan around them
- The exact vehicle attack warning signs to listen and watch for in a crowd
- The Tactical Twos framework — a special operations planning tool simplified for families
- How to earn Condition White and actually enjoy the event without living in fear
- A mental rehearsal technique that programs your brain to act before panic sets in
On January 1, 2025, a truck drove into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. Fifteen people were killed. Over fifty were injured. I had published an article on vehicle-as-weapon attacks five days earlier. I hate being right on that one.
Last holiday season, I took my family to our local Christmas parade. Kids, floats, candy, lights — all the normal stuff. And within minutes of arriving, my brain had already mapped every unprotected entrance, every channelized road feeding into the crowd, and every back turned to the most likely attack vector. Not because I was paranoid. Because I was prepared.
Here's what I observed: a large dense crowd, mostly unaware. Multiple straight roads feeding directly into the parade route. Zero hardened barriers, bollards, or even parked police cruisers blocking vehicle access. Hundreds of backs turned to the most likely approach. Every ingredient for a high-body-count ramming was present.
What I Actually Did About It
My fear level was near zero. But my awareness was elevated, and I had briefed my wife before we arrived. I reminded her of the near rally points, told her to pay attention to her six, and gave her the three key indicators of a vehicle attack — engine revving, sounds of a collision, people screaming and running. I told her: move laterally, jump the railing, do not run straight back.
She got a great photo of the tree lighting. We all had a great night.
That's the whole point. You don't have to be paranoid to be prepared. You just have to take 60 seconds before the next event and run through the basics with whoever is with you.
The Tactical Twos
Two safe havens. Two escape routes. Two areas of likely threat. Two trauma kits — one in the car, one on your person. This framework, drawn from special operations planning, takes minutes to brief and applies to any crowd event. It's not about fear. It's about having a program in your brain before you need it.
ISIS publishes holiday attack guides. That's not a conspiracy theory — I have the receipts. Don't be an ostrich.
Read the full article and watch the video on Substack
MAY 8, 2025
Executive Personal Security in a Hybrid Threat Environment: Why You Can't Outsource Your Safety
A counter-terrorism contractor and executive protective agent explains why capable leaders are the biggest gap in their own security plan — and what to do about it.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN IN THE FULL ARTICLE:
- Why traditional bodyguard protection fails most executives — and what fills the gap
- The OODA Loop framework adapted for real-world threat recognition
- How to identify early-stage surveillance using counter-terrorism principles
- The Street SMAARTS system: the layered personal security model built for professionals
- Why family security is part of the executive security equation
Executive personal security has become a front-page issue. You've watched two assassination attempts on a presidential candidate. A CEO gunned down on a Manhattan sidewalk. A woman set on fire on the subway. A car driven into a crowd. Teslas targeted. The threat landscape has shifted — and if you're a professional with any degree of visibility, your routines, your brand, and your position may already make you a target.
Most executives respond to this one of two ways: they hire a protective team they can't afford, or they do nothing and hope 911 arrives in time. Both leave you exposed.
The Cost Problem With Traditional Security
A single professional protective agent costs a minimum of $250,000 annually. A small competent team exceeds $1 million. That puts full-time protection out of reach for most — even high-wealth individuals. And even when you have a team, there will be moments when you're alone and vulnerable. External protection without personal capability is a gap every serious attacker will find.
The answer isn't to train like a commando. It's to stop treating personal security like the fitness program you keep putting off.
What Elite Disciplines Actually Teach
The same frameworks used by Special Operations, counter-terrorism units, and executive protection professionals are learnable. Not all of them — but the parts that matter most.
The OODA Loop — Observe, Orient, Decide, Act — is a decision-making framework built for high-pressure situations. It trains you to read your environment, recognize developing threats, and act with calm precision instead of panic.
Counter-terrorism tradecraft teaches something equally valuable: most targeted attacks follow a predictable pattern. Surveillance. Planning. Rehearsal. Learning to recognize early-stage indicators — the same face in different locations, unusual behavior near your office or vehicle — gives you the ability to disrupt a threat before it materializes.
Situational awareness, route variation, behavioral tests for surveillance detection — none of these require a dramatic lifestyle change. They require a system and a small investment of time.
The 1% Standard
A minimal, 1% effort in personal security can produce a 100% increase in confidence and preparedness. That's the standard the OSS coaching program is built on — practical, discreet, one-on-one executive security coaching that fits your life without turning it into a tactical operation.
Security doesn't stop with you. Your family — especially your children — needs age-appropriate preparation too. Code words, safe havens, what to do when separated in a crowd. These aren't paranoid measures. They're responsible ones.
You already lead with decisiveness at work. Your personal security deserves the same standard.
JAN 26, 2026
What Every Concealed Carrier Must Know Before a Police Encounter Goes Wrong
A break down of the rules that keep you alive — and out of handcuffs.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN IN THE FULL ARTICLE:
- John Farnam's Rules of Stupid — the foundation every armed citizen needs before leaving the house
- The three non-negotiable rules for surviving any police encounter while carrying
- When resistance to law enforcement is legally permitted — and why the bar is much higher than most people think
- How to make yourself unmistakably identifiable as the good guy in a tense encounter
- The mindset shift that separates lawful carriers who go home from those who don't
Concealed carry is a right and a responsibility. But carrying a firearm without understanding how to handle a police encounter isn't just reckless — it can get you killed. The Minneapolis ICE shooting in January 2026 is a reminder of how fast a situation becomes a lethal one when the basics break down.
If you carry every day, these rules are non-negotiable.
Start With Farnam's Rules of Stupid
John Farnam's framework is the foundation. Don't go to stupid places. Don't associate with stupid people. Don't do stupid things. Follow these and you eliminate 90% of avoidable problems before they start. Stupid varies by person and context — but ignoring these rules is how good people end up in bad situations with a gun on their hip.
The Three Rules for Police Encounters
When police give a command — lawful or not — your priority is survival, not winning the argument in the street. That argument gets resolved later in court.
- First: comply cearly and slowly. No sudden movements. Hands visible. Period.
- Second: never make any motion toward your weapon. Any movement toward your waistline, pockets, or holster is a high-risk trigger in a tense encounter — even if your intent is innocent.
- Third: disclose that you're armed when the situation allows. A calm, clear "I am legally armed" with hands visible reduces misunderstanding before it escalates. It's not always legally required. It's almost always smart.
When Can You Resist?
This is where people get it dangerously wrong. Some states allow reasonable resistance to clearly unlawful arrest — but the threshold is narrow, the legal exposure is enormous, and the lawfulness of an encounter is never judged on the street. You can be dead and innocent. Or alive and in prison. Neither outcome serves you.
I carry nearly every day. I've never worried about getting shot by police because I follow these basics and make it unmistakably clear that I am the good guy. That's not luck. That's a system.
The Bottom Line
A firearm is a tool. Knowing how to use it in a gunfight is one skill set. Knowing how to survive a police encounter while carrying it is another — and most people skip the second one entirely.
it isn't about hwo to blame after an event; its' about something more important. Your survival in that encounter is your responsibility. Not the officer's. Not the legal system's. Yours.
Check out the full article and the video on Substack